Welcome to Jester's Trek.
I'm your host, Jester. I've been an EVE Online player for about six years. One of my four mains is Ripard Teg, pictured at left. Sadly, I've succumbed to "bittervet" disease, but I'm wandering the New Eden landscape (and from time to time, the MMO landscape) in search of a cure.
You can follow along, if you want...

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

A song of ice and fire

Some say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I've tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.
-- Robert Frost

On April 28 and 29, the first great test for CCP in 2012 begins.

I said yesterday that Mittens and CCP are stepping gingerly around each other.  But that's not how it started, and that's not how it's likely to end.  It began in fire, and may well end in ice.

When Mittens recorded the State of the Goonion on March 29, a couple of hours after being kicked off the CSM, he was as angry as I've ever heard him.  Hell, Mittens comes off so in control most of the time that I'm not sure he gets angry.(1)  But he was angry on March 29.  Oh my, yes.  "We must see... we must wait and see, when I am unbanned," he said, "whether EVE is still the EVE we love."  How are the Goons going to check?  They're going to do their level best to drive a sword into the heart of the game... just to see what happens.

Just to see how CCP responds.

On April 28, after Mittens is unbanned, their plan is "burn Jita to the ground" and "go to the beating heart of EVE Online and... stab it repeatedly.  If CCP is still the old CCP, this will be heralded as an amazing in-game event, a 'Free Mittani' event... and everything will be fine."

In his post the same day to the GSF forums, Mittens was even more direct: "the rabble" is trying to "turn EVE into Hello Kitty Online.  It’s a shame that I have to do this."  I said earlier today that third wave companies don't use phrases like HTFU.  That's OK, because Mittens is clearly getting ready to shout it in the direction of Reyk.  Loudly.

"If there is some kind of crack-down or reaction to Goonswarm being Goonswarm, then we will have more information and can make an informed decision as to how we proceed," he said in the SOTG.  "We will destroy Jita and we will see where things go."  And hell, that isn't even the fun part.

The fun part is that Mittens apparently spent a good deal of time at Fanfest convincing residents of other null sec alliances to join in the fun.  Expect "Jita will burn!" to be the rallying cry for that whole weekend.  So that's the fire.  What about the ice?

A lot of people said something interesting right after the Alliance Panel debacle.  They essentially said that CCP was damned if they do, damned if they don't when it came to reacting to Mittens's actions.  It was quite a dilemma, and both choices were bad.  Make no mistake: the situation in Jita the weekend of April 28 is the same.  CCP has no good choices here.  If you're reading this, you are a well-informed individual.  You no doubt read my blog, other blogs, EVE News 24, follow forums on Failheap or kugu, and generally take advantage of the news sources available to you.

You are the minority when it comes to EVE players.  Make no mistake about this, either: April 28 and 29 are going to come as a total stunning surprise to the vast bulk of EVE Online players, who will nearly immediately begin screaming for explanations and calling for someone's blood.  How does CCP respond?  How can they respond?

The funniest part of this of all is that it is entirely possible that Goonswarm is preparing the greatest bait-and-switch in gaming history.  What do I mean?  "1800 Tornados," Mittens says, is what the Goons are preparing for use in Jita.  It sounds enormous.  It's four times as many Tornados as there are for sale, total, in Jita as I type this.  It's an investment easily exceeding 200 billion ISK.

A freighter, though, has about 200,000 effective hit-points and Jita is a 0.9 system.  I find it difficult to believe that the Tornados will get two volleys, but I know next to nothing about suicide-ganking freighters.  Let's suppose they do get two volleys off each.  A single Tornado volley is good for about 11000 EHP of damage.  That means it'll take nine Tornados to gank a single freighter.  That means that 1800 Tornados can gank about 200 freighters.  Do you have any clue how many freighters and jump freighters go through Jita?

Here is the least busy time I could find, watching freighters make their way around the Jita system for one hour.  This is Tuesday night USTZ, traditionally the least busy time in EVE, from 0000 to 0100 EVE time.  I was able to lock 105 freighters in one hour.  If you're on that list, bang, you lost a freighter or JF.

But weekends are a hell of a lot busier.  Last Sunday afternoon, I passed counting 100 freighters after 20 minutes.  Snapcount informs me very reliably that there are an average of 7000 more people logged in on Saturday than on a weekday.  The Goons have to know this.  Which means that even if everything goes perfectly for them, they'll exhaust their Tornados in about 90 minutes... tops.  It'll be a blip.  An amazing blip and an orgy of destruction, to be sure, but shorter than an Incursion Live Event.  It might very well be over before you could get there to watch, even if you knew exactly what time it was going to start.

As a result, I can think of only two possibilities here: one, a few dozen freighters and jump freighters fall as they enter Jita space, and from there, the word spreads and so terrifies everyone that Jita is essentially blockaded to freighters.  That's certainly one possibility.  It's not what I think of when I think "burn Jita to the ground", though.  Another possibility occurs to me that does fit the mental image.

The Goons could shoot everything except freighters.  Say they collectively shipped in a couple thousand gank Catalysts and Brutixes left over from the Gallente ice interdiction to join the Tornados.  The Goons could effectively blockade Jita.  Any frigate that jumps in or undocks, caught and killed by a Gankalyst.  Cruisers and haulers, caught and killed by the Brutixes.  Bigger ships, Tornados.  Additional null-sec alliances bring their own stuff, or just buy out the Jita market of Canes and Thrashers and join in the fun.  Anyone stupid enough to think a cloak will save them will quickly find the gates are so saturated by CONCORD ships, wrecks, drones, and cans that the gates may as well be mined.  Cloaking in that would be a miracle.

Can you imagine the chaos?  Those 1800 Tornados could kill every man, woman, and child trying to enter or leave Jita for the entire day!  They could kill hundreds of ships... thousands of ships with destroyer support.  The freighters would stay out, terrified of even coming close to Jita, ironically not realizing that they might be the safest ships of all.

And most of EVE Online wouldn't know about it until they jumped into Jita and it was happening to them.


Yeah, CCP is in a very, very bad spot.  Because 10 minutes after the carnage starts, the GMs are going to find themselves having the worst day of their lives.  Does CCP ignore it?  If so, the vast silent bulk of their player base is suddenly going to become not-so-silent.  They will be screaming absolute bloody murder.  Does CCP quietly ask the Goons not to do it, and in so doing, completely validate and justify "angry Mittens"?  Also not tempting.  Do they crack down on it?  That's a horrible choice, particularly since the day this happens is likely to be the very same weekend that the Fanfest attendees and the gaming press get their first access to DUST 514 from their homes!

What do you suppose those Fanfest attendees will be doing?  What do you suppose the gaming press will be writing about?

Oh my yes, CCP is in a very bad spot.

And in the center of it all will be Mittens, cool as ice and watching every move they make... and planning his next move as the newly unshackled-from-the-need-to-be-a-nice-guy head of Goonswarm.

I did say that bad pennies always turn up, right?  You heard me say that?  How does CCP respond?  How can they respond?

Selah.


(1) This is one of the many things that Mittens and I have in common, interestingly enough, but that's a subject for another post.

79 comments:

  1. I was pretty sure this was where you were going with this. I love being right. CCP will not do a damn thing. They never do it for Hulkageddon. They won't do it for the jitahellcampofdeath. I sat there and watched their marketing director cheer the ages-old GHSC heist/assasination story for 45 minutes. He will be running a live feed of Jita himself. Players will complain. There will be petitions, there might even be investigations into alleged exploits.

    The story and the fallout will make EVERY. SINGLE. GAMING. NEWSSITE. The discussions will last weeks, and it won't be about a drunken moron shooting his mouth off. It will be about a 100% player driven event. Every clever tactic (or meanspirited exploit depending on who you are rooting for) every deal cut, every mega-killmail will be exposed and explained.

    CCP might not even run a trailer. They might just use the livefeed and scream "THIS IS JITA!" over and over. As for the people with their heads too far up their collective asses to realize it's coming... meh. Some will quit. Some will cry. Some will break out of their shell and go hunting. It's what happened to me after all.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And EVE will get another thousand odd subscriptions from people curious about this virtual world where piracy and sabotage are allowed and even encouraged :)

      Delete
    2. This is my hope. Also, it's a great time to own a T2 1400mm BPO. :)

      Delete
    3. I totally agree with your prediction. This is the only thing they can do.

      Delete
    4. This right here is the best case scenario, and I REALLLLY hope that's how it goes down.

      And Mara Rinn's comment is spot on...THIS is the kind of thing that gets people to sub to E-O.

      Delete
  2. There are several options, radical options that could prevent this from happening. It should be noted for readers of this post, that these options are quite insane and unprecedented to my knowledge, but if CCP is pushed enough I can see them in a reasonable position to do so.

    1. Close down Jita. Simple. Effective. And eliminates both the target and the problem from ever happening in the first place. Admittedly, this will incur the wrath of Goonswarm, and others but it will keep the vast majority of people safe from this. You can explain this away as Lore reasons, saying Tibus Heth (caldari version of Hitler) is looking for traitors in Jita and has ordered the system locked down. Pretty bad lore reason I admit, but it could be done.

    2. Force people to become informed about this development, by introducing stories on to the ISD Eve News, or creating log in advertisements which proclaim it. Not that it's going to make people to become aware of it, but it could mitigate the damage from angry gamers and or CCP sugar daddy sony.

    3. Increase Concord protection to absurd levels. Self-explanatory make it so it take more ships, more people, or makes the prospects of suicide ganking a most difficult task. Making arty alpha ships, unlikely to get a second volley in before being blown to bits and bobs.

    4. Do nothing. Probably going to happen.

    5. Perma Ban Mittens. I'm not going to elaborate further for obvious reasons.

    That's the options I can see in a reasonable light that CCP might do given enough pressure, squeeze and stress. However, I see CCP doing nothing or Perma banning Mittens, in a realistic situation given the options that are realistically available to them.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In response to #3, the planning is assuming that the Tornadoes will only get one volley. Increasing Concord protection won't affect this.

      Delete
    2. Hardly, the top three options are under the assumption that CCP is now being controlled by Sony Entertainment. Options that I could see Sony doing. But realistically, I only see number 4 happening in any real fashion.

      Delete
  3. I started playing EVE due to stories like this proposed Jita powerganking. EVE is and has always been a game for cyber-bullies; like it or not, making people feel bad about their losses is a HUGE part of EVE. If a loss in EVE was meaningless, it wouldn't be EVE. Goons have made their 'let Jita burn' campaign be well known for at least a few weeks.
    Frankly the old idiom that 'there's no such thing as bad press' holds true; the bigger the scam, gank, ripoff, what-the-fuck-ever-cyberbully-bullshit, the better. Making it well known to the MMO gaming populace that if you don't want to play some pussy-assed, elves and hobbits, ring-around-the-rosy, never lose anything of value, bullshit .. then you should try eve on for size. Granted only a few will stay, but those who do are the types EVE needs.

    ReplyDelete
  4. "If there is some kind of crack-down or reaction to Goonswarm being Goonswarm, then we will have more information and can make an informed decision as to how we proceed."

    That is very much an indirect threat to CCP so I would hope they'll proceed with caution. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  5. Message on the Launcher and the login screen banner, "Jita Burning", posts on their Facebook page — there are a multitude of ways that third-wave-CCP can communicate to players that Jita will be a place to avoid for a while.

    Then again, there will be an awful lot of leadership off playing the DUST524 beta. "Burn Jita" might end up being "slightly warm Jita, we are too busy shooting people in the face."

    ReplyDelete
  6. PS: I wouldn't herald this as a "free Mittani" event so much as, "evil space empire disrupts hisec trade hub," because that is what it will be,mid it actually happens.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I stand by my prediction: :totallysafehisec: within :18months:.

    The Goons may have previously been out to destroy "YOUR" game not "THE" game, but remember that EVE is no longer Mittens' game... He lost his "king of space" crown, and well, it could be that he's decided that it's time to destroy THE game, period.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Krixtal IcefluxorApril 4, 2012 at 5:18 AM

      But CCP owns the ultimate weapon: The BANHAMMER.

      Delete
    2. Why ban someone playing by the rules?

      I believe high sec is necessary for the game, yet CCP's implementation of imperfect security is excellent. It is almost built specifically to allow for this type of mayhem. Why anyone thinks this event deserves any sort of response by CCP is beyond me...

      Delete
  8. Okay, Goonswarm attacks shipping or blockades Jita.

    From a CCP point of view, interesting but part of the game. Move along folks, nothing to see hear, move along.

    From a RP point of view, a zero-sec alliance is blockading (an act of war) a large commercially viable Caldari State system or a zero-sec alliance is attacking all commerce related ships in a Caldari State system (also an act of war). Perhaps the Caldari State takes action against this zero-sec alliance. All pod pilots enganged in these activites find their standings with the Caldari State set to -10, or bounties are placed on their deaths, or the Caldari State declares War against the Goons. Any number of possibilities.

    If it happens it sounds like a Ninja-salvagers wet dream

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Or even better, all alts related to those IP addresses involved get -10.... under the guise of Caldari Intelligence Agency investigating the connections of the criminals involved in the unlawful attack on sovereign Caldari Space by a terrorist organization.
      Think of the goontard tears when all of their HS alts are perma -10 in Jita... oh the irony, the tears, the perfect perfect hilarity of goons buttfucking themselves as normal

      Delete
    2. Empires set permanent -10 standings to any alliance with sov?

      Delete
    3. Every major 0.0 alliance outside of the CFC is at least considering wardecing goons to legally gank the shit out of them on said date around jita.

      Delete
    4. That actually sounds like a really good option. It fits well with eve in that the players dictate the game...but the game world also answers. This time, in force.

      I really like it.

      Delete
  9. I think CCP's reaction will depend on how they expect this event to be seen in the press. If they think it might make more noise than DUST 514 or if it shows EvE has too newbie unfriendly, they're more likely to take a harsh decision (concord to absurd level, etc.). But I can't see them permabannig The Mittani because they would have a hard time making it look ok, least of all legal.
    And going after industrials and subcaps seems to me the more likely road to be taken for this action as it would affect the most players, which seems to be what The N is aiming for.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Krixtal IcefluxorApril 4, 2012 at 4:37 AM

      CCP has the right to ban anyone at anytime. You do not even own your ingame items. Read the EULA.

      Delete
  10. I suspect CCP won't do a thing. Why should they? They provide the sandbox. It is us, the players that provide the drama.

    One of the major differentiators between EvE and and other games is the lack of enforced control. You have a choice and pay the prices for those choices, but at least you have them.

    Now, multiply that by the thousands of Goons, and it could be EPIC (or at least it had better be if Mittens rep is to stay in place).

    Rightly or wrongly in your opinion doesn't really matter at the end of day, as long as it is within the framework. And besides, if anything we need moar EPIC! not less... (CCP are you listening...?)

    ReplyDelete
  11. CCP can inform players using the popup screen on logon. They advertised RvB that way, why shouldn't they do it with the Jita event?

    Also Jita is 0.9 security, there is no way for a tornado to fire two volleys. That makes the "burn Jita" very risky to goons: they can simply run out of tornados in the first day while most players didn't even heard of them.

    Let me add that in a 0.9 security system someone with -2.5 security rating is attacked by the guards and sentry guns without doing anything. So a goon pilot can find himself attacked after a pair of ganks. Please note that the description of faction police says "can call for reinforcements if need arises". This isn't a new thing, but can be tweaked a bit without notice as there was never so high "need" for police.

    So CCP can simply drop some Caldari faction TITANS to the gates who blop every Goon below -2.5 security rating without any blame. They can claim that the titan drop chance was always there but never used simply because there was no such criminal presence in empire space before.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Make sure they are tracking titans, for those extra juicy goon tears.

      Delete
  12. Goons blockade Jita; Caldari State sets them red after 24 hours?

    I am OK with this.

    ReplyDelete
  13. oh common, please...

    read the story of Miz Cenuij and his jita blockade....

    this post is the same as the people saying 2012 is the end of the world....

    HTFU might not be current CCPs mantra, but it surely isnt "love each other till it hurts".

    ReplyDelete
  14. "As for the people with their heads too far up their collective asses to realize it's coming... meh. Some will quit. Some will cry. Some will break out of their shell and go hunting. It's what happened to me after all."


    Honestly? The people who would quit over getting suicide ganked in Jita during the proposed event are the sort of people we dont really want in EVE to begin with.


    Now, Im a bit of a care bear, Hong would probably describe me as a highsec bear gorged on highsec junk-food when I should be out in the wilds eating berry's. (for real? Hong? That blog post made so little sense to me. O.ô)

    I say let Jita burn.
    As long as nobody dodges concord or... I duno... does something stupid like tell someone to kill themselves, I see no reason CCP should or would intervene.




    Personally I half hope they make some sort of live event out of it. Have the Caldari militia put out a call to arms and jump into system with a super cap or something.

    Realistically I picture that marketing guy making a blog post about it or better yet a video about how awesome EVE is.CCP know that the focus needs to be on the EVE universe right now and after 2012 FF I do not for one second believe they would jeopardise that by flunking "the test". And make no mistake, this is a test. Not just by goons but every magnificent bastard who plays EVE because EVE.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Kel--come to America, bro. I'll take you to a few National Parks and we'll visit some bears and my Ranger buddies, and show you EXACTLY what I mean. Then it'll make _perfect_ sense.

      Besides, you at least express an interest in nullsec and going out to "forage", instead of just having ISK spoon-fed to you (well, at least you can get it "spoon-fed" if you're in the right clique, with the right shiny fits)...

      Anyways, the mere sentiment that you expressed, hisec PvP is OK, and you accept it as part of the game reality, and those who can't should probably GTFO--makes you NOT a carebear, at least in my eyes. ;-)

      Delete
  15. Eh, not sure it's such a big deal but every time Mittens opens his mouth he makes me resent him as a human being even further. He's not playing a game, he's fucking with the entire game. This isn't RP, it's real life and for all his tears about being 'sorry' he's proving he was lying every time he does this shit.

    And to think anyone believed he wasn't advocating people harass that player...no, he meant every word.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "He's not playing a game, he's fucking with the entire game."

      Umm, yeah, did you not get the memo about the Goons? Their entire reason for existing is to screw YOUR game (not THE game). HTFU.

      Delete
    2. I take "YOUR game"to be collectively and individually

      Delete
  16. Why would CCP have to inform players or respond to

    this burning Jita stuff? It's a sandbox and players options are in action.

    cheers

    ReplyDelete
  17. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejX0Rym0NZw

    ReplyDelete
  18. What I'd like to see CCP do is incredibly simple. Nothing. I mean, how many live players can Jita actually support? How close is Jita to complete lag out on a fine busy Sat as it is now? Add additional 2000 players warping into a system that is already heavily loaded?

    And if CCP were to quietly and un-reinforces the Jita node...?

    just wondering

    ReplyDelete
  19. Can you please start to post interesing articles about in-game topics again? All the chichi metagame and "OMG Mittens is banned, CCP will burn" nonsense if boring as hell.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Jester you have really been a disappointing in terms of blogging lately. I normally enjoy the 15 minute break I take at work for reading up but I felt I wasted my time here lately.

    CCP isn't in a bad spot, this has been done in the past allready, years ago! Remember Moo who actually tanked concord spidertanking while killing stuff for hours/days.

    That is the reason why concord has such powerfull weapons today.

    CCP even had a fleet of piloted concord ships manned to kill them at one point. Or transported them acros the universe to get them out of systems.

    Goonswarm isn't doing anything new, and the reaction of CCP will be just at it always has. Fun, until it gets silly and then they'll take action, if they need to, as any company should when their bottom line (overall customer enjoyment vs sandbox) is jeopardized.

    In the meantime, it wouldn't be a bad idea to head to Jita to enjoy the show. Fun is to be had by everyone. From where I sit, goonswarm will lose many ships so will traders. But those will all need to be replaced. And dear god, think of all the loot.

    ReplyDelete
  21. This quote is maybe more apt?

    Some say a comet will fall from the sky.
    Followed by meteor showers and tidal waves.
    Followed by faultlines that cannot sit still.
    Followed by millions of dumbfounded dipshits.

    Some say the end is near.
    Some say we'll see armageddon soon.
    I certainly hope we will cuz
    I sure could use a vacation from this...
    -- TOOL Aenema

    ReplyDelete
  22. Stuff like this brings new people to the game. Mittens is actually doing CCP a big favor.

    In the end the economic disruption will not be very big. Some people will lose stuff, others will avoid the trade hub(s) for a few days and others will profit from the situation.

    This is how EVE is supposed to be played. If CCP is smart they won't interfere.

    DeBingJos

    ReplyDelete
  23. I have heard that the current plan calls for thrashers and tornadoes, which makes sense given that maelstroms are the main goon BS.
    They will also likely be starting a *lot* of war decs 24 hours before, in which case there will be plenty of targets of opportunity that do not involve concord or GCCs.

    ReplyDelete
  24. The thing about this is that Mittens is certainly going to blow the Horn of Gondor on this one. In the Tenal campaign we have seen 4 full subcap and 1 full cap fleet up at the same time. Expect a large draw in effect involving goons, cfc allies, enemies, and every pirate - jita undock corp in the game in a huge free fire zone. I can easily see jita completely "blockaded" just from TiDi effects let alone ganks.

    ReplyDelete
  25. I think you and Mittens really overrate the importance of Jita. Certainly, it is the most popular trade hub, but it is not the only trade hub - not by a long shot. Every item available at Jita 4-4 is readily available at other major trade hubs such as Dodixie, Amarr, and Rens. Secondary trade hubs provide the most commonly used items, as well. Any drop in Jita trade will simply be picked up by the other hubs. No big deal.

    Mittens and the Goons might believe themselves to be masters of null sec PVP, but they really don't know squat about the market or high sec. Only a null sec dweller would think that Jita is the only market hub.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He never said it was the only market hub, he said it was the most important. And don't kid yourself, all the other market hubs combined don't see the sort of traffic Jita does. 20-30 jumps out from Jita you start seeing 40-50-100 people in system on paths to and from it.

      Jita isn't so much a trade hub, as it is the nerve center for all the other trade hubs. It all goes back to math, Jita is where it is because a lot of people sat down with the EvE map with the idea of finding the most central system in all of EvE. No matter where you are, Jita is the central point you pass by or through on the route to the other side of the map. Its the natural collecting point for a warehouse and distribution network. Rens, Amarr, Dodixie, all are fed by Jita. There is a brisk trade in sitting at Jita, bringing up those systems markets and looking for the best return on profit for items, then shipping them there.

      If Jita goes down for a weekend, the others have enough stock to last awhile. If the unthinkable happened and Jita went down for a week or more... Rens, Amarr, and Dodoxie wouldn't be able to keep up because all the overstock is housed and collected at for trans-shipment to somewhere else.

      Delete
    2. LOL - you really don't know much about the current state of high sec, do you?

      Years ago, this was true, but no longer. High sec is more heavily, and more evenly, populated - thanks in part to the changes in the agent quality system. There are 15 to 30 thousand players active in high sec, on average, at any given time during the day, feeding local hubs and secondary market stations with loot from mission grinding, minerals/ice from AFK mining, and regionally manufactured goods. Less than 5% of high sec resides in or around Jita these days (and a significant percentage of the Jita in/out traffic are actually null sec alts, moving stuff to/from null sec).

      The Jita centric model is a relic of the past; high sec operates on a more distributed model now. Stockpiles are bought/sold and maintained regionally, and there is usually not much reason to ship/store overstock to Jita any more.

      So, the Goons - or CCP - could shut down the Jita node permanently, and it would barely rate a blip in high sec, except to the null sec dwellers who shop there. The high sec market traders and industrialists are far more flexible than null sec PVPers, and Jita trade would simply shift to the other hubs.

      Delete
    3. You do know you just defeated your own point by saying its where Nullsec goes, right? If nullsec is selling and buying at Jita, guess where their influx is going. Moon Goo, Jita. Mins from Drone Region, Jita. ABC, Jita. Moon goo is the biggie, since Branch Tenel and Venal are closer to Jita than any other trade hub, the bottleneck material has to pass through Jita before going out into highsec. And since people like one stop shop, that means all ships are sold at Jita, a quick look at contracts for rare or expensive ships will show the vast majority are at Jita. Minerals, null buys in High and ships to Null, most of it from Jita. Everything gets fed there in huge amounts. I have an alt about 8 jumps out from Rens and see a few people jump in everynow and again. 8 jumps out from Jita and it's constant traffic. Route from Jita to any other trade hub, minimum 40 people in every system along the way. Route from any other regional trade hub to another regional trade hub... eh.. 8-15 until you are right up on it.

      Delete
  26. Krixtal IcefluxorApril 4, 2012 at 4:36 AM

    CCP should play the radical card. The Jita event itself is unstoppable and is only of temporary 'concern', a rather strong word tbh here, but Mittens should be permabanned. THAT would be a demonstration of a cruel, harsh universe, indeed.

    As CCP enters the 'adulthood' of its existence, these behaviors are nothing but a hindrance. And a ban on Mittens does not mean the game is any easier. No reason to really change anything.

    The radical element just needs someone with an actual CLEVER head on them, instead of a REACTIVE head.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Didnt Zombie Corp do this to Yulai a few years back?
    CCP werent overly bothered until it turned out they had worked out a way to tank CONCORD so they stopped them

    As long as Goons stick to the rules then I hope they do let it go ahead and as with the Yulai incident, only intervene if Goons are breaking ingame rules.

    RP wise there are a lot of ways to negate the effect of it if they want to. Dont need Tiberius Heath, I am pretty sure CONCORD would have the power to close Jita due to threats of "terrorism".

    Would be fun if CONCORD declared free for all on Goons, effectively a war dec against Goons from everyone. :)

    ReplyDelete
  28. CCP should do nothing. As has been mentioned it's the sandbox game.

    Ganks occur all the time in hisec, this one may be grand scale, but it's not exactly low key or instant either.

    It's the sand box live with it.

    If this is what CCP will do or not I don't know.

    On the other hand I do have sympathy for new players who aren't carrying expensive stuff and will just be dying for no reason. I see no way around this unfortunately.

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  29. This was a great read. Personally I think CCP should not do anything extra to what they do currently, if they want the sandbox to be legit. As long as it stays within the confines of "legitimate game play" they should in all matter of fact let it happen.
    My thoughts though are more into what would the long term consequences of such an act be? if any real consequence. burn Jita for a day, the next it will just go on, but with some stories to tell. If however they could somehow manage it for a longer time on a consistent basis... now that would fundamentally touch each and every person in new eden. It would be awesome to see jita stations on fire and in ruins for a couple of months, while they "repair it". Make it part of the whole EVE story: the day a capsuleer alliance attacked a empire system. Hell write an EVE chronicle about it. CCP should not stop it... no rather use it for every bit of marketing they can. Like so many others have said: Something like this can only happen in EVE.
    There are however consequences to actions. like others have said. the caldary state could adjust status of goonswarm and co after such an "act of war". Maybe in the days and months after, caldary military would dare to "invade" goonswarm territory :) and even offer bounty on every goon killed by a capsuleer. Now that would be interesting and engaging game play, plus an intelligent way to handle such a possibly tricky situation. Run with it, rather than try and stop it.

    On an side note. it would be simply awesome if Sansha were in communication with goonswarm and engage in an coordinated attack on the empires :) ... possibly stretching CONCORD's capabilities to breaking point. and capsuleers finding themselves fighting a massive war on two fronts. I think it would be awesome, turn EMPIRE on its head for a couple of days :) But that might just be me :)

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  30. I don't think you'll see much of a response from CCP, unless the Goons violate the EULA, such as 7.A.1. "You may not take any action that imposes an unreasonable or disproportionately large load on the System." In which case, Mittens might end up facing a possible permaban from the game, if he foolishly promotes such an action.

    But, I also don't think that this Goon nonsense will amount to much, except for perhaps killing some of the dumber players who fly their freighters on auto pilot, and maybe some of the station campers hanging around 4-4. Remember the Gallente ice interdiction? "We're going to wreck the entire EVE economy" was Mitten's claim and they fell way short of achieving that goal. And ice miners are a much easier/softer target than freighters.

    On the other hand, this event may provide a good opportunity for high sec carebears to whore some Goon killmails, and perhaps get in a few Goon poddings, as well. Expect to see a few disco battleships hanging around in Jita, just waiting for Goon pods after Concord takes care of the Tornadoes.

    And, it might not be a bad time for someone to take a poke into Goonspace, while a good chunk of the Goons are distracted in Jita. That would certainly be funny. :)

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  31. As a high sec dweller, I don't mind what will happen and should be interesting. I also don't see this as a stark choice for CCP. If anything it would be a good test to see how well the game mechanics cope. Moreover, this is not a 1 vs 1 play. There are more actors than CCP and Goonswarm and who knows what interesting things will happen as side effects/counterschemes?

    Finally, it is true from a lore/RP aspect, an unprecedented event like this give free reign for CCP to make unprecedented things happen as a response, purely to ensure the lore/RP aspect of the eve universe. As noted previously, a null sec alliance blockading a major empire trade hub is an act of war after all.

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  32. If this would actually happen it would be quite hilarious to watch.
    I am not sure how CCP will react though.
    On one hand I think they shouldnt react at all.
    On the other hand they might believe they have to act what with the way this fanfest drama played out.

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  33. I'm not a Goon, but I think this is great. Anyone who has any sense will use Amarr, Rens, Dodixie, etc. If not, the tears will be hilarious. This is what makes Eve great.

    I'm curious to see how they handle the Tornado supply though. If I were them, I'd scan all freighters first and only pick out the most valuable targets. No reason not to do as much damage as possible.

    CCP can't do anything about the campaign besides maybe a public announcement, login screen or otherwise. This is the game they created, and the backlash from changing high sec mechanics would be far larger than a couple of bears yelling about their freighter getting ganked.

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  34. A long time ago there was a player hisec incident, I can't remember the details, armageddons with RR avoiding concord or something? That's probably the closest similar event ever. What was the outcome? I can't remember details...

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    1. That was the Zombie Yulai Incident I mentioned above

      As they were circumventing CONCORD by not dieing GMs warned them and told them to stop. The ones who didnt got stop were handed out bans. Not sure if permanent or not though

      This was when CONCORD was boosted to the power that they have now.

      A search on google for "Yulai Incident eve online" will give more details

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  35. I think the jitahellcamp is a great moment for the game, and CCP should at most post a Capsuleer News type thing on the login to cover their asses.

    "Rumors from Nullsec indicate a large military operation may be planned in Jita..."

    Also, if this works, and it may finally decentralize the economic hub and help the eve economy in the long run. Imagine 4 smaller, more specialized trade hubs. Less convenient, but more rife for possibilities.

    Also, the implications I draw about the nature of the player base:

    http://warpto0.blogspot.com/2012/03/april-24th-welcome-to-inferno.html

    I think we stand to learn more about the rest of Eve outside the CFC when (if?) this whole shindig goes down.

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  36. Some back of the envelope math for you:

    # of decently skilled folks in tornados required to alpha a freighter and be damn certain about it dying: 13

    1800 Tornados represent 138 dead freighters.

    I count on eve central...about 60 Obelisks. 40 Charons. 40 Providences and 40 Fenrir for sale. Most of them in accessible stations. So, let's assume an even distribution of freighter pilots (Although Charons and Obelisks are the big numbers boys if you sit and watch the 4-4 undock)

    There are enough freighters on the market to absorb that initial shock. But all stocks of freighters will be gone. And since it is a relatively slow moving item, I'm sure that there is not a huge amount being constructed right now. So there is a ten day run-up time in production. And for that there is going to be a need for a small crap-ton of materials that need to be moved in...freighters. But that's okay so far because we had enough on the market to cover all the losses.

    And then, they do it again. 'Repeatedly stabbing at the heart'

    Oops...this time losses cannot be replaced from the market. And hm...Suddenly logistics are becoming a problem. I don't know how many freighter pilots there are out there. But suddenly missing 130 of them is going to hurt.

    And replacing those losses ain't gonna be a picnic either. Because of reduced numbers of bottoms to carry the loads.

    And believe me, I'm betting that the goons are not going to just sit in Jita and pot freighters. It is going to be freightergeddon if they are going to do it right. And while goons might be awful at this game, there are some pretty smart people over there. And if *I* can see the simple and effective way of killing Jita...I am sure they can too.

    I can't kill Jita. Maybe the goons can't kill Jita. But I'm sure they will try.

    I suggest putting the freighter alt on vacation for a few days...

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    1. Freighters are T1 ships and thus extremely low hassle to build. The BPOs are all available from NPCs on market - no invention is required. And, they don't require any moon-derived components - just ordinary ore minerals. The bulk of the minerals - such as trit - can be mined in high sec belts. The relatively small quantities of required ABC minerals can be easily carried by T1 or T2 haulers. Unlike most cap ships, freighters can also be built in high sec NPC stations - no POS is required.

      An 10 day build time is not much of a speed bump, esp. when compared to building any other cap or super cap. Think about how quickly a cap or super cap fleet can be rebuilt these days in null sec; then, figure in the fact that high sec's manufacturing capability is at least two orders of magnitude greater than null sec. 138 freighters can be replaced on market quite quickly. Some folks have probably already queued up new freighters in the manufacturing lines, in anticipation of an increased demand (as happens with Hulks and Macks prior to Hulkageddon). Within a month, there might even be a glut.

      So, really, no BFD. I doubt that you'll even see much more than a short spike in prices, given that many of the industrial corps which fly more than a few freighters actually build their own. Only the independent freighter pilots buy them off market.

      Also, keep in mind that, in order to maintain a blockade, Goonswarm will need to replace those 1800 Tornadoes, as well as the fittings (freighters have no fittings, so no additional cost). You can expect the price of Tornadoes and their fittings to rise, thus the cost of maintaining a Jita blockade will also rise. Since there will undoubtedly be plenty of non-Goon vultures waiting in and around Jita to scoop up any tasty freighter loot, the Goons will not be able to count on that source of revenue to replace their losses.

      Delete
  37. i don't have a freighter, i don't care

    goons can't destroy hs market, doubt they could even interrupt it. (unless goons mine, research, build anything by themselves)

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  38. One important factor that you missed: every character that participates is going to lose sec status. Sec status will probably be the limiting factor, not the ships. I understand that grinding sec status back up is fairly easy, but it will take some time. (More time, perhaps, than it takes to build a new tornado?).

    I'm looking forward to the event. If goons plan to "burn Jita" its going to take a lot more than 1800 tornados. Their tactics will have to be a lot more elaborate than a few gate camps at the entry systems. Its those alternative tactics that I'm looking forward to.

    Also, if this event fails, no one will take goons seriously. This time, goons don't get to define success. "Burn Jita" makes me think that Jita will no longer be a viable trade hub. If Jita is open for business on April 30, goons will be able to brag about no more than lightly toasting Jita and that counts as failure to me. The event may not even get a footnote in EVE's chronicles.

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    1. Sec status is not a barrier. Concord does not do anything to you unless you are GCC. And the regular police forces will not kill a tornado before it has had the chance to alpha a freighter.

      With no bubbles in highsec getting a -10 alt out before getting podded is trivial. The only real danger is on undocking, and they can avoid that with orca alts.

      It will be interesting. And while it may fail, it will certainly make noise.

      Delete
    2. True, but blinky red status does make you a valid Concord-free target for everyone else in and around Jita.

      Those Orca alts can be scanned down, and there will most likely be some eager folks just waiting for the Goons to switch ships.

      Don't forget that you are talking about thousands of non-Goon pilots around Jita, including some decent PVPers - not just a couple of carebears in a mining system, or autopiloting a pipe.

      And, keep in mind, too, while it will take 13 skilled Goon Tornado pilots to alpha a freighter, it only takes 1 mediocre non-Goon Tornado pilot to alpha a Goon gank-fit Tornado.

      Delete
    3. But being -10 means you can't just sit and wait on the gate for a freighter to appear, you have to warp in and land as the freighter is aligning out. That means you need to board the tornado or undock and perhaps warp to the gate at just the right time to catch the victim.

      Then the freighter can wait cloaked for up to 30 seconds before initiating warp. If the tornadoes land as the freighter jumps he just waits until the faction police have killed them all before decloaking but if they land late they risk missing one which decloaks quickly and is being webbed into warp.

      For smaller ships it would be even harder to time this well.

      Delete
    4. Nah, the usual tactic is to have an alt hang around the gate, wait for the freighter to decloak, apply a warp disrupter on the target, then warp in the gank fleet, right on top of the freighter. It isn't that difficult to do, even if the freighter has its own alt with a web, assisting the freighter to warp.

      With sebos and large arties, the Tornadoes can insta-lock and lay down a lot of alpha, in the 7 secs before Concord shows up. I think Zedrik calculated that 13 Tornadoes can do the job.

      The bigger threats for the Goons will be (a) the large number of non-Goon players - fit with sebos and long range guns - who are also likely to be waiting for the Goon gank fleet to arrive, at the gate or Jita 4-4 station, so that they can either whore a Goon KM or pop a Goon pod, and (b) the fewer - but more dangerous - non-Goon players who will be hunting down the Goon Orca alts, in anticipation of catching the Goons while they are switching to their gank ships.

      The timing is also more difficult than ganking miners, since you don't have nearly as much time to dick around getting to the Orca, switching ships, and warping to target. An Orca is pretty easy to scan down, and you don't want a bunch of Goon pods just waiting around where they can get insta-popped by a disco BS.

      Unfortunately, too, Jita is a 0.9 system and the Goons cannot launch their attacks from a POS. You also cannot build a POS in any of the surrounding systems - except Muvolailen, which is not particular convenient since it is not along any of the main pipes to Jita.

      Delete
  39. I want to be there for it all. It would be epic to die in this chaos... PLEASE SELL TICKETS MITTENS!

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  40. I think it will be a great show to watch. But, I haven't seen one option CCP may take mentioned. What if CCP actually came out in their ships to "help" defend Jita, but "accidentally" popped any ships in their vicinity? (Not like they haven't popped people coming to help them before.) It would make for an epic day in Jita.

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  41. Oh the drama... not.

    If they don't abuse any game mechanics CCP will and should do nothing. People treat Jita like Wall Streat IRL, and allow emotions to control them.

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  42. there's an easy solution for CCP : advertise for the Goon ganking.
    put it on login add, email it, what you want. make it so people can know it, and react.

    if the day change from "goons are gonna kill everyone" to "today, it's the world vs goons" it won't be the same.

    if people stay docked, the goons still win : they have blocked jita even if they don't kill anyone.

    if people try to counter attack the goons, they will like it also ; after all they don't care who is the prey, and if the prey attack them it's even better for them.

    if ccp is know on 3rd phase, they know to communicate, and if that's the case, they know how to inform their players than on the end of april, it will be the apocalypse.

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  43. CCP should role-play it. Have alerts start showing up on the captains quarters tv screens, send out random messages/alerts in local etc etc. Just like they do in the real world when the threat level gets increased based on intel and that they would increase partrols by Concord etc etc.

    Cold also have random NPC's start conversations with Jita people asking them "have you heard about rumors of the incoming terrorist attack on April 28?"

    This is a perfect opportunity for ultimate random and unexpecting sandbox fun and CCP should welcome it.

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  44. Jester you're so full of bullshit.

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    1. But, it's very good bullshit... :)

      Delete
  45. I'll be curious to see if Red Frog suspends services for a few days.

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    1. Probably not - although they might just switch from Red to Black. Their Black Frog group is pretty experienced at running through low/null sec.

      Delete
  46. One option that CCP may take, if they choose to intervene, is to promote the event widely. Not only should they promote the event, they should exagerate the impact. CCP should raise expectations of the event so high that Goons couldn't possibly deliver. Any attempt the goons make would then be perceived as a failure.

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    1. The Goons will never be able to deliver, when they try to disrupt high sec - at least, not while Mittens is running the show. Mittens just doesn't understand high sec.

      His last feeble attempt was the Gallente ice interdiction, in which he claimed that "We're going to wreck the entire EVE economy."

      Did they spike up oxytope prices for a bit? Yes, but not by much.

      A factor of 2x, or even 3x, isn't all that much, Kittens... er, I mean, Mittens. Many of the independent market manipulators can do a much better job, with vastly less resources with which to work.

      Did they wreck the economy? No, not even a blip.

      In fact, most high sec industrial players didn't even take much notice, since the Goons were unable to maintain the interdiction long enough to even dent the average high sec corps POS fuel stockpiles. No one even bothered to raise prices on any POS-derived items.

      Did Mittens and the Goons still claim that the ice interdiction was a success, though? Sure, they will tell you that they popped a couple hundred miners and a few Goons make some decent ISK on ice sales (albeit muhc less than your average margin trading scammer).

      But, you'll never get them to admit that they utterly sucked failure in trying to "wreck the entire Eve economy". It was so lol. :)

      Delete
  47. I don't really see how this is going to work on a large scale because of security statuses. Surely after ganking 5-10 people the toon is going to be -ve so it won't be able to go into Jita any more without getting shot at? Won't they run out of +ve sec status toons very quickly if they gank everything but freighters?

    Ganking mining barges with -10 toons works because the barges mostly just sit still and wait for it but you'd need very good timing to gank traffic at a gate/station with a -10 toon when the faction police are already spawned from last time. Perhaps they could do it with unpiloted ships floating around the station/gate and jump into them at the right moment but then people could steal them and jump?

    So what am I missing?

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  48. You know, a lot of this speculation assumes that no one is going to be hunting or shooting at the Goons, and that they can maintain this sort of blockade indefinitely.

    But, consider that most of the Goons will be blinky red (if not at first, then soon after a few gank runs). This means that *anyone* can proactively shoot at them, without worrying about getting shot by Concord or loss of sec status. This makes them damn fine targets for the 1000+ pilots who regularly hang around Jita!

    The Goons will not be able to use a POS to stage their attacks (as they did in the ice interdiction), which means that they will be relying on Orca's or alts to fly the ships from station to some safe spot, prior to the attack. (But, an Orca is a big, easily scanned target and can only carry a single Tornado in its ship maintenance bay. Not very practical, so let's assume they will use the alts.)

    A group of BCs is still pretty easy to scan down, and let's assume that some of the more gung-ho ninjas will be out in force searching for the Goon safe spots. This means that the Goons will need a lot of safe spots, since reusing one which has been scanned down would be rather risky. 100+ safe spots... what a logistical hassle, and still not all that safe.

    In addition, they cannot rely on using only 13 Tornadoes per gank run, since some of them might get killed by players at the safe spot, and/or upon arrival at the gate or station. Sure, Concord will take 7 seconds or so to respond, but nothing prevents other players from firing immediately when the Goon gank fleet arrives. A gank fit Tornado is a pretty weak ship - more comparable to a cruiser - and can be easily alpha'ed.

    ZedrikCayne theorized a possible 138 freighter kills from 1800 Tornadoes, but, it is more likely to be much, much less.

    As for maintaining a blockage indefinitely, a problem is the sec status loss on the alts. To gank a non-stationary target (ie. not a miner), they are probably going to need an alt tackler, waiting at the gate, to prevent the target from getting into warp before the fleet arrives. The alt is going to be taking a sec hit, each time it tackles a target, and eventually, the Goons will run out of alts which can safely hang around the gate. Remember that recycling alts to avoid the sec status penalty is not allowed, and this places a limit on how long the Goons can actually run this sort of blockade.

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  49. The best response for CCP is to co-opt the event. Postpone the dust beta launch, and advertise the crap out of Jitageddon. Make it look like a sanctioned Live Event. As othes have pointed out, this kind of thing will not only get press, but it will get new subscribers. I subscribed because of the stories of player run madness, and I'm sure more will too. The question is whether the new subscriptions come (and stay) in sufficient numbers to overtake the numbe of unsubs by unhappy Hisec bears. The more CCP promotes the event, th better that math looks. CCP should steer into he skid. (My personal favorite of public relations maneuvers cause a) it takes balls of steel, and b) it woks.)

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